This Viewpoint assesses the state of the global economy in early 2023 and the commercial real estate outlook, following a year of heightened geopolitical tensions, an energy market disruption, surging inflation and central banks aggressively raising interest rates in 2022.
CBRE continues to expect a moderate global recession this year. However, China’s reversal of its zero-COVID-19 policy and reopening its economy will reduce the likelihood of all major economic blocs suffering a recession simultaneously, while complicating efforts to curb inflation.
Slower economic growth will lessen commercial real estate investment and leasing activity through the first half of the year. As the path of interest rates and the broader economy become clearer, we anticipate a capital markets recovery to begin around midyear, followed by an increase in leasing activity.
